April US Nonfarm Payrolls Expected to Rise by 65,000, Unemployment Rate Seen Remaining at 4.3%

02:57 PM EDT, 05/07/2026 (MT Newswires) -- US nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise by only 65,000 in April after a 178,000-jobs gain in March, based on a survey compiled by Bloomberg, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.3%.

The April employment report is due to be released at 8:30 am ET Friday.

Layoffs intentions rose in April after an increase in March, according to a Challenger, Gray and Christmas report, led by the technology sector due to increased use of AI.

The BLS's private payrolls count, which excludes government payrolls, is expected to increase by 75,000 in April after a jobs increase of 186,000 in March. ADP reported that its measure of private payrolls rose by 109,000 jobs in April after an increase of 61,000 in the previous month, led by an increase in education and health services payrolls.

Initial claims were higher in the mid-April employment survey week compared with mid-March survey week, but insured claims were lower.

The National Federation of Independent Businesses reported that 34% of small business owners continued to have problems filling current positions in April, up from 32% in March.

On the consumer side, the percentage of respondents saying that jobs were "plentiful" in the Conference Board's April consumer confidence survey fell by 0.1 percentage points to 27.3% while those saying jobs were "hard to get" decreased by 0.5 percentage point to 19.8%, slightly widening the gap between the two measures.

Average hourly earnings are expected to increase by 0.3% in April after a 0.2% gain in March, while the year-over-year growth rate is expected to accelerate to 3.8% from 3.5%. The average workweek is expected to remain at 34.2 hours.

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