TREASURIES-US yields dip as oil prices continue fall on Iran deal hopes
BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 10:55 AM EDT* US-Iran peace deal hopes drive oil prices lower
* Lower oil prices support Treasury yield decline
* Fed officials say inflation risks may delay rate cuts
* Initial jobless claims rise, but below expectations
By Chuck Mikolajczak
NEW YORK, May 7 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury yields fell on Thursday, with the benchmark 10-year note on track for a third straight decline, as it tracked the recent drop in oil prices on optimism that progress was being made on a peace deal in the Iran war. The United States and Iran are edging toward a limited, temporary agreement to halt their war, sources and officials said on Thursday, with a draft framework that would stop the fighting but leave the most contentious issues unresolved. U.S. crude fell 4.44% to $90.86 a barrel and Brent fell to $96.91 per barrel, down 4.31% on the day, although prices remained volatile.
The yield on the benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury note shed 1.8 basis points to 4.336% and was on pace for a third straight daily decline, which would mark its longest streak in nearly three months.
"The bond market's been remarkably quiet throughout this process, and in fact has not sold off as much as you would have expected, given the reduction in expected cuts, so therefore, it's just (going to) grind lower rather than just rip lower if we get a resolution," said Jay Hatfield, chief executive and chief investment officer at Infrastructure Capital Advisors in New York.
"It just makes sense that we're on hold waiting for the resolution of this proposal to Iran because it's really kind of 98% of the catalyst for the market over the next month," Hatfield said.
The yield on the 30-year bond slipped 0.7 basis point to 4.936%. The 30-year had hit 5.036% on Monday, its highest since July 17.
Since the war began on February 28, yields have steadily climbed as inflation worries dented market expectations for rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year.
A closely watched part of the U.S. Treasury yield curve measuring the gap between yields on two- and 10-year Treasury notes, seen as an indicator of economic expectations, was at a positive 48.5 basis points.
JOBLESS CLAIMS EDGE HIGHER On the economic front, weekly initial jobless claims rose by 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 200,000, slightly below the 205,000 estimate of economists polled by Reuters. The data was the latest read on the labor market this week and comes ahead of Friday's key government payrolls report. Other Labor Department data showed nonfarm productivity increased at a 0.8% annualized rate last quarter, below the 1.0% estimate and down from the downwardly revised 1.6% rate in the fourth quarter.
The two-year U.S. Treasury yield, which typically moves in step with interest rate expectations for the Fed, fell 2.3 basis points to 3.849% after sliding to 3.824%, its lowest since April 28. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Beth Hammack reiterated that risks of higher inflation in the future argued against the U.S. central bank holding on to its policy leaning toward cutting rates at some point.
Other Fed officials scheduled to speak on Thursday included Bank of New York President John Williams and Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari.
The breakeven rate on five-year U.S. Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) was last at 2.571% after closing at 2.591% on May 6.
The 10-year TIPS breakeven rate was last at 2.42%, indicating the market sees inflation averaging about 2.4% a year for the next decade.
(Reporting by Chuck Mikolajczak; Editing by Will Dunham)
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