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UBS Previews This Week's Labor Market Report in Canada

BY MT Newswires | ECONOMIC | 12:38 PM EDT

12:38 PM EDT, 05/05/2026 (MT Newswires) -- UBS said it expects the April Labour Force Survey (LFS) data to be released on Friday to reinforce the same themes it has seen in the Canadian jobs market since the turn of the year.

Slowing population growth and declining labor force participation have left the unemployment rate relatively stable despite a slowing in the pace of employment growth, the bank wrote in a note to clients.

UBS estimates employment to rise 5,000, with risks skewed lower due to a shift in the seasonal factors and little reason to think the banm sees a significantly stronger non-seasonally adjusted flow this year versus last.

The bank estimates the unemployment rate will remains at 6.7% on a rounded basis but could move down a couple of basis points unrounded. In March, the unemployment rate was 6.714% to three decimals, exactly the same as the rate in February.

UBS projects that average weekly wages for permanent workers rose 0.23% over the month, moving the year-over-year rate down to 4.8% from 5.1%. For all workers, the bank expects a monthly gain of around 0.14%, with that, the annual rate would move a tenth lower to 4.6%.

MT Newswires does not provide investment advice. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited.

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