Bank of Canada Doesn't Intend to Chase The Oil Price Run-Up, Says Rosenberg Research

11:40 AM EDT, 04/30/2026 (MT Newswires) -- There was nothing at all hawkish about the Bank of Canada press statement on Wednesday, said Rosenberg Research.

There was no surprise that the policy rate was held at 2.25% for the third meeting in a row, but the tone was very measured in what can only be described as a carefully worded statement, Rosenberg noted.

What is important is that there was nothing to validate the market's view that three rate hikes are coming in Canada's way, stated Rosenberg. At most, a prolonged "wait and see" approach.

While short-term inflation expectations have risen alongside the energy price shock, the BoC noted that "longer-term inflation expectations have remained anchored." The latter is far more important when it comes to decision-making from any central bank, Rosenberg pointed out.

The statement made it clear that the BoC is ready and willing to "look through the war's immediate impact on inflation" even as it added that it stands ready to respond if there are signs of any sustainable pass-through.

The BoC added that to date, "there is little evidence that oil prices have fed through more broadly." The expectation is that inflation will peak at 3.0% year over year in April and head to the 2.0% target by early 2027.

Benchmarked against market expectations, Rosenberg added that it "would actually label this dovish at the margin."

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