FOREX-Dollar holds firm after Fed raises inflation alarm, yen slips past 160

BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 09:21 PM EDT

* Fed's divided stance and hawkish tilt push U.S. yields to one-month highs

* Oil spike and Iran conflict fuel risk aversion, supporting dollar

* Yen nears intervention levels, keeping traders on edge

By Jiaxing Li

HONG KONG, April 30 (Reuters) - The dollar hovered near its highest in more than two weeks on Thursday after some Federal Reserve policymakers turned hawkish, sending yields to a one-month top, while the Japanese yen's break above 160 sharpened focus on intervention risks.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell closed out his eight years with rates on hold amid rising inflation concerns. The Fed's 8-4 decision to leave the rate unchanged was its most divided since 1992, drawing three dissents from officials who no longer think the bank should communicate a bias towards easing.

The hawkish shift sent yields sharply higher. The 2-year note yield, which typically moves in step with rate expectations, rose to 3.928%, while the 10-year climbed to 4.421% - both their highest levels since March 27.

Traders are now pricing out Fed cuts entirely this year, with markets assigning a 55% chance of a rate hike by April 2027, sharply up from roughly 20% before the decision.

"The change in tone... the divisions within the Fed make it interesting. We are now starting to see some are getting worried about the inflationary impact that the Iran conflict has on the economy, and that obviously has consequences on easing bias that the Fed still technically has," said Rodrigo Catril, currency strategist at National Australia Bank in Sydney.

The oil price spike has also made the market more nervous, and the dollar is now being supported by both risk aversion and higher U.S. Treasury yields, he added.

The dollar index was steady at 98.852 following a 0.3% gain on Wednesday, hovering near the highest level since April 13.

The euro stood at $1.1689 and sterling traded at $1.34877, both up roughly 0.1% so far in Asia.

The Bank of England and European Central Bank will also meet later today, with markets closely watching their guidance as expectations grew that both may be forced to raise rates soon.

Meanwhile a deadlock in diplomatic efforts to resolve the Iran conflict left the markets on edge, with President Donald Trump discussing how to mitigate the impact of a possible months-long U.S. blockade of Iran's ports with oil companies.

Oil prices, meanwhile, soared on fears of prolonged supply disruptions due to the Middle East war, with Brent crude futures nearing its highest point since June 2022.

The Australian dollar fetched $0.71285, and the New Zealand dollar traded at $0.58394, both up roughly 0.2%.

JAPAN INTERVENTION WATCH

The yen was down 0.1% at 160.16 per dollar, edging closer to levels that have previously triggered intervention, despite the Bank of Japan signalling after its policy meeting on Tuesday that it could raise rates in coming months.

The Japanese currency has fallen more than 2% since the war began on February 28, and investors have built the biggest short yen position in nearly two years in a bet that neither rate hikes nor risk of intervention will come to its rescue.

"While this brings the pair closer to intervention territory, the Ministry of Finance will be wary of firing its intervention bullets too early given Japan's vulnerability as a large energy importer and the current stalemate in the Middle East," analysts at IG said in a note. (Reporting by Jiaxing Li in Hong Kong Editing by Shri Navaratnam)

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

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