Euro zone consumers sharply lift inflation bets, ECB survey shows

BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 04:00 AM EDT

FRANKFURT, April 28 (Reuters) - Euro zone consumers sharply raised their inflation expectations in March, a key European Central Bank survey indicated in a worry for policymakers who fear that high energy costs could push up expectations and make rapid price growth self-perpetuating.

Inflation has surged since the war in Iran pushed up energy prices and the ECB is now nervously watching to see if this shock creates second-round effects, necessitating policy tightening.

Inflation expectations for one year ahead jumped to 4.0% in March from 2.5% a month earlier while bets for three years out rose to 3.0% from 2.5%, both well above the ECB's 2% medium term target, the bank's monthly Consumer Expectations Survey showed on Tuesday.

However, policymakers may take some comfort in expectations for five years ahead, which only moved to 2.4% from 2.3%.

Meeting on Thursday, the ECB is expected to keep interest rates unchanged for now but will likely make clear that rate hikes remain firmly on the table and the bank will act on signs that the initial shock is getting embedded in price setting.

Consumers also took an increasingly dim view on overall economic growth, predicting a 2.1% contraction for the year ahead after seeing just a 0.9% decline a month earlier.

Income expectations remained unchanged for the year ahead but expectations for spending growth jumped to 5.1% from 4.6%, the survey showed. (Reporting by Balazs Koranyi; Editing by Alison Williams)

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

Before investing, consider the funds' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.

fir_news_article