Jerome Powell Could Deny Trump Another Fed Board Pick: What Do Prediction Markets Say?

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is days from one of the most consequential decisions of his career: walk away from the central bank when his chairmanship ends May 15, or stay on as a governor through January 2028 and deny Donald Trump a working majority on the Fed board.

Friday’s Justice Department decision to drop its criminal probe into Powell removed the last condition he had set before deciding. By Sunday, holdout Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) had dropped his block on Kevin Warsh’s confirmation as the next chair.

Modern Fed chairs almost always walk when their chairmanships end. Powell told reporters in March he had “not made that decision yet” and would base it on “what I think is best for the institution and the people we serve.”

The Working Majority Math

If Powell leaves, Donald Trump fills a fourth seat on the seven-member board alongside his three other appointees: Michelle Bowman, Christopher Waller and Warsh.

That doesn’t automatically mean a rubber stamp, Waller said last week he would “absolutely” oppose any effort to fire regional Fed bank presidents over policy disputes.

But it does give the administration the math to act if it wants to, during the most aggressive pressure campaign on Fed independence in decades.

If Powell stays, Trump has no scheduled vacancies before January 2028.

What Prediction Markets Say

Polymarket bettors price an 80% chance Powell exits the Fed Board by Dec. 31, 2026, and 42% odds of an exit by May 30.

Kalshi has Warsh confirmed by May 15 at 96%.

Polymarket prices the same outcome at 91%, with confirmation by June 30 at 98%.

The 80% reflects the conventional read: Warsh in, Powell follows tradition and walks, Trump gets his fourth seat. The other 20% is the bet that Powell stays to deny him.

Druckenmiller On The New Chair

Warsh, who is worth more than $135 million and has reported personal stakes in Polymarket and SpaceX in his financial disclosure, spent the past 15 years at billionaire Stanley Druckenmiller’s Duquesne Family Office.

Druckenmiller has publicly defended his prot?g?’s rate stance. “The branding of Kevin as someone who’s always hawkish is not correct,” Druckenmiller told the Financial Times in January. “I’ve seen him go both ways.”

With Trump pressing for cuts, Druckenmiller signaling his guy isn’t a hawk, and a working majority potentially in reach, the path of least resistance for the new Fed points to easier policy and a softer dollar.

SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) has run roughly 53% over the past 12 months as Fed independence questions stacked up alongside the Iran war and Hormuz disruption.

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