RBC Previews This Week's GDP Data in Canada

06:23 AM EDT, 04/27/2026 (MT Newswires) -- RBC said it expects real gross domestic product to increase by 0.2% month over month in February, in line with Statistics Canada's advance estimate.

Canada is set to release GDP data on Thursday.

Industry data points to continued growth in goods and services sectors with manufacturing and wholesales recovering as earlier auto production disruptions faded, noted the bank. Retail volume also continued to increase in the month (+0.3%), highlighting ongoing resilience in consumer spending.

Partially offsetting these gains is non-conventional oil and natural gas extraction in Alberta that appears to have pulled back in February, stated RBC. Housing-related activity also remained a drag with home resales continuing to decline, although at a slower pace.

Early indicators for March suggest growth momentum has been maintained into the end of Q1, added the bank. Hours worked edged higher by 0.2% month over month, alongside other signs of steady economic activity.

Advance manufacturing sales rose 3.5% month over month in March -- in part reflecting higher oil prices, but also consistent with further recovery in auto production from earlier disruptions. Excluding oil and related products, advance wholesale sales also rose 1.3%, driven by higher machinery, equipment, and supplies sales.

Taken together, data for Q1 are tracking between RBC's forecast of 1.3% annualized growth and the Bank of Canada's January projection of 1.8%.

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