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Nomura Previews Next Week's Bank of Canada Policy Meeting

BY MT Newswires | ECONOMIC | 04/24/26 06:52 AM EDT

06:52 AM EDT, 04/24/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Nomura said it expects the Bank of Canada to leave the policy rate unchanged at Wednesday's policy meeting.

The BoC is slated to release its policy decision at 9:45 a.m. ET on Wednesday.

Governor Tiff Macklem is unlikely to provide directional guidance and is likely to stress two-sided risks, noted Nomura.

The BoC will also publish the Monetary Policy Report (MPR) on Wednesday, with revised economic projections.

The bank expects a "modest" upward revision to the inflation forecast in the MPR, reflecting higher energy prices. The BoC could "modestly" lower its near-term growth profile amid soft Q1 activity and the Iran war, but the medium-term outlook is unlikely to change materially.

That said, considering the elevated uncertainty, the BoC could opt for a scenario analysis rather than a single baseline, stated Nomura.

Overall, the bank estimates the BoC to remain in a wait-and-see mode and keep rates unchanged through 2026, with risks "modestly" skewed to a hike.

MT Newswires does not provide investment advice. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited.

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In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

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