EMERGING MARKETS-Most stocks, FX headed for weekly declines on Mideast uncertainties
BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 04/24/26 05:59 AM EDT* Central banks intervene as EM currencies weaken, inflation and debt risks rise
* Mozambique debt downgraded by Fitch, IMF to discuss new loan in June
* S&P Global Ratings warns African sovereign credit risks likely to worsen
* US imposes preliminary anti-dumping duties on solar imports from India, Indonesia, Laos
By Johann M Cherian
April 24 (Reuters) - Most emerging markets stocks and currencies were on track for weekly losses on Friday as uncertainty around a lasting end to the U.S.-Iran conflict kept crude prices higher and turned investors averse to riskier assets.
Global markets see-sawed for much of the week as investors reacted to headlines that raised hopes of an imminent end to the conflict, even as developments in the Middle East offered little cause for optimism.
MSCI's index tracking emerging market stocks edged up 0.6% on Friday and was set for small weekly gains as tech-heavy Asian stocks in Korea and Taiwan did much of the heavy lifting on artificial intelligence optimism and strong results from SK Hynix.
However, indexes tracking bourses in the ASEAN region , emerging Europe and Latin America were headed for weekly declines.
A broader EM currencies index dipped 0.1% and was set for weekly losses as investors flocked to the safe-haven dollar.
Currencies such as Indonesia's rupiah and India's rupee hovered near record lows, prompting defensive actions by their respective central banks earlier this week. Meanwhile, hawkish monetary policy decisions by central banks in Turkey and the Philippines, stemming from inflation concerns, did little to stall the slide in the peso and the lira .
"An inflation shock seems unavoidable now, and the key question is the intensity and duration," Bas van Geffen, senior macro strategist at Rabobank, said in a note.
"The longer the conflict in the Middle East remains unresolved, the bigger the stagflationary impact will be."
SLOW DOWN WORRIES LOOM
Further greenback strength and higher crude prices, denominated in dollars, are likely to pressure developing economies' fiscal and current account balances, with a majority of the countries also having to face elevated costs when servicing their hard-currency debt.
S&P Global Ratings warned that the risks to African sovereign credit scores were likely to worsen, with Egypt, Mozambique and Rwanda among the "most exposed".
Fitch downgraded Mozambique debt deeper to junk status on Thursday, with the International Monetary Fund saying it will send a team to the country in June for advance talks on a new loan programme. Mozambique's international dollar bonds slipped 0.2 cents on the dollar.
On the flipside, higher crude prices have benefitted net-energy producers such as Kazakhstan and Russia, as the tenge and the rouble have gained about 9% and 4% so far this year, respectively.
The Kazakhstan central bank left benchmark rates on hold and said it would be prepared to consider rate cuts in the future, while economists anticipate Russia to lower borrowing costs by 50 basis points later in the day.
In emerging Europe, political jitters continued in Romania as seven ministers from the largest party in the ruling coalition, the Social Democrats, resigned from the pro-European government of Prime Minister Ilie Bolojan, depriving him of a parliamentary majority and endangering access to EU funds.
The country's international bonds slipped 0.4 cents on the dollar, while the cost for insuring against a potential sovereign default within the next five years edged up 0.3 basis points to 166 - its highest since October.
In some positive news, the European Union formally approved a 90-billion-euro ($105-billion) loan to Ukraine and new sanctions against Russia, after oil started flowing through Ukraine to Hungary and Slovakia, prompting Budapest to end its veto on the funds.
Some Ukrainian dollar bonds were marginally higher.
On the trade front, the U.S. announced preliminary anti-dumping duties on solar cells and panels imported from India, Indonesia and Laos, the latest in a string of tariffs imposed over a decade on solar imports from Asia. (Reporting by Johann M Cherian in Bengaluru; Editing by Janane Venkatraman)
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