TREASURIES-US bonds drift higher as Hormuz uncertainty blurs risk signals

BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 04/23/26 10:49 AM EDT

* Market seems "comfortable" with no US-Iran resolution

* Conflicting signals on Hormuz control ramp up uncertainty

* US jobless claims increase, business activity rises

By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss

NEW YORK, April 23 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries edged higher on Thursday, in largely rangebound trading, as lingering uncertainty surrounding the ceasefire between the United States and Iran continued to complicate the assessment of risk sentiment in the market.

Mixed signals over control of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy flows, have muddied expectations for both de-escalation and supply disruptions, curbing inflows into Treasuries. With no clear resolution of the conflict, investors remained reluctant to position aggressively in bonds. President Donald Trump said on Thursday the United States had "total control" over the Strait of Hormuz, and that it was "sealed up tight" until Iran makes a deal. At the same time, Iran showed off its tightened grip over the strait on Thursday with a video of its commandos storming a huge cargo ship, even as the vice speaker of parliament, Hamidreza Hajibabaei, said the first revenue from a toll that Iran was now collecting from ships using the strait had been transferred to the central bank's account. He gave no further detail about who had paid it, when or how much.

"We're in a little bit of a holding pattern and it seems that the market seems shockingly comfortable with an unresolved situation with Iran," said Zachary Griffiths, head of investment grade and macro strategy at CreditSights in Charlotte, North Carolina.

"So in our conversations with clients, we're suggesting that this headline-, paralysis-driven type of market stability may persist."

U.S. crude futures were nearly 1% higher at $93.89 per barrel, marginally lifting Treasury yields as well.

In midmorning trading, the benchmark 10-year yield, which moves inversely to prices, was flat on the day at 4.294% . U.S. 30-year yields were little changed to slightly lower at 4.895%.

On the shorter end of the curve, U.S. two-year yields, which reflect interest rate expectations, were up 1 basis point at 3.804%. U.S. yields ticked lower after data showed initial claims for state unemployment benefits rose 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 214,000 for the week ended April 18. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 210,000 claims for the latest week.

Another piece of data also showed the U.S. economy not exactly falling off a cliff.

U.S. business activity rose in April after nearly stalling in the prior month, even though supplier delivery times at factories worsened as the war with Iran disrupted supply chains, pushing a measure of output prices to a near four-year high. S&P Global said its flash U.S. Composite PMI Output Index, which tracks the manufacturing and services sectors, increased to 52.0 this month. That followed a 50.3 reading in March, which was the lowest level since September 2023.

The reports suggested that the Federal Reserve would be in no rush to resume cutting interest rates.

U.S. rate futures on Thursday showed about 9 bps of easing this year, down from 10 bps late on Wednesday, and significantly lower than the more than 50 bps priced in before the Iran war, according to LSEG estimates. (Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Editing by Andrea Ricci )

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

Before investing, consider the funds' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.

fir_news_article