Canada's GDP to Rebound in First Two Quarters of This Year, Says CFIB

08:30 AM EDT, 04/23/2026 (MT Newswires) -- The Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB) said its estimates and forecasts, in partnership with AppEco, suggest the Canadian economy grew 1.6% in Q1 and is expected to increase to 1.6% in Q2.

"This strength stems from strong oil and [natural] gas production as well as sustained construction activity," noted Simon Gaudreault, CFIB's chief economist and vice-president of research, in a statement released on Thursday.

"However, challenges persist and small business-friendly policies, such as the temporary pause on the federal fuel taxes, would provide a much-needed relief for firms that continue to face sky-high operating costs," added Gaudreault.

The consumer price index inflation is forecast to be around 2.9% in Q2, noted CFIB in the same statement.

After declines throughout last year, private investment is expected to recover by 3.1% in Q1 and 2.9% in Q2.

A special analysis this quarter reveals that small firms' investment plans are edging back to their historical average, pointed out CFIB. However, with business confidence indicating cautious optimism, business owners are prioritizing upkeep over expansion projects.

The sectoral profile on investment shows that at least two-thirds of firms in every sector plan to invest in employee training, according to CFIB. A strong majority of firms in most sectors look to invest in marketing and promotion, while at least half of firms across most sectors plan to invest in non-Artificial Intelligence technology or equipment.

The Q1 2026 private sector job vacancy rate remained unchanged at 2.8%, representing 391,300 unfilled positions.

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