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RBC Previews Next Week's Bank of Canada Policy Meeting

BY MT Newswires | ECONOMIC | 04/23/26 07:10 AM EDT

07:10 AM EDT, 04/23/2026 (MT Newswires) -- The Bank of Canada will keep rates unchanged at next Wednesday's policy meeting, said RBC.

If the policy language shifts, it will be only marginal, but likely in the direction of more hawkish than last time, noted the bank.

Since the last meeting where the BoC sounded concerned on growth, the labor market has stabilized, Q1 gross domestic product is tracking close to its forecast, the Business Outlook Survey had a slightly more upbeat tone and financial conditions have loosened. The latest core inflation prints were neutral after four straight low months, pointed out RBC.

The bank's view remains the BoC is on hold in this year and hikes in 2027, with risks of hikes being brought forward into H2 greater -- but a slow burn evolution -- than the small chance of reductions this year, stated the bank.

The annual review of the neutral rate and potential GDP growth should be "non-events," with no change in either RBC's modal expectation.

Current pricing for one hike in 2026 is around "fair" and the bank doubts even if the BoC is marginally more hawkish, that Canada can get back to more than 1.5 hikes without oil surging or data strengthening.

MT Newswires does not provide investment advice. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited.

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