Commerzbank on Overnight News

06:40 AM EDT, 04/21/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Commerzbank in its "European Sunrise" note of Tuesday highlighted:

Markets: United States Treasuries and equities are supported, while oil is little changed. The US dollar (USD) gains, gold softens.

Fed: Kevin Warsh to commit that monetary policy "remains strictly independent" in Tuesday's hearing to approve the new Federal Reserve chair, but sees no particular threat when politicians "state their views on interest rates" (Politico quotes from leaked prepared remarks). Democrats raise concerns about Warsh's finances in report to Senate Banking Committee.

U.S.: President Donald Trump invokes the Defense Production Act for the energy sector. The U.S. to host the second round of Israel/Lebanon talks on Thursday. Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer resigns.

Iran war: President Trump says ceasefire will expire on Wednesday night, extension is "highly unlikely" without a deal, and he won't be rushed into a bad deal. Blockade "is absolutely destroying Iran," will stay in place until there is a deal. A different post says the deal will happen "relatively quickly." Vice President JD Vance's delegation is on its way to Pakistan.

Iran hasn't decided to attend negotiations (foreign ministry). Tehran won't accept negotiations under threats (parliament speaker).

==EUROPE:

ECB: European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde says "double uncertainty" about duration of shock and breadth of pass-through "argues for gathering more information before drawing firm conclusions."

Germany: Tax revenue rose 3.6% year over year in March, driven by real estate and wage taxes, while higher energy prices won't raise tax revenue (HB).

Italy: Government projects deficit below 3% this year despite cut of gross domestic product growth to 0.5% from 0.7% (Bloomberg).

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