Canada Bond Yields Fall On Smaller-Than-Expected Jump In March CPI, Says CIBC

10:48 AM EDT, 04/20/2026 (MT Newswires) -- The 2.4% headline reading, driven by a 0.9% non-seasonally adjusted month-over-month increase, or 0.5% after seasonal adjustment, was actually slightly below the consensus expectation of 2.6%, although still a sharp acceleration from 1.8% in the prior month, said CIBC.

Higher fuel prices, specifically gasoline, were the primary driver of the acceleration, and excluding energy inflation actually decelerated modestly on the month, noted the bank after Monday's consumer price index data.

Bond yields fell following the release as investors scaled back bets of interest rate hikes from the Bank of Canada this year, stated CIBC.

Looking forward, a further rise in gasoline prices will see headline inflation jump further in April, potentially surpassing 3%, added the bank. As a consequence, inflation should hopefully cool slightly, assuming the recent partial pullback in global oil prices holds, and partly helped by the temporary suspension of the federal fuel excise tax -- worth about a 0.2% percentage point drop to headline inflation for May.

Core measures of inflation could well reaccelerate slightly over the summer months as signs of pass-through in areas such as air fares become more obvious, but continued slack within the economy should keep domestically-driven services inflation tame and CIBC continues to see the Bank of Canada holding interest rates at their current level throughout 2026.

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