TREASURIES-US bonds?marginally higher on hopes of end to US-Iran war
BY Reuters | TREASURY | 04/14/26 11:15 AM EDT* US-Iran talks in Islamabad may resume, calming oil markets
* US PPI up less than expected; little impact on bond market
* Fed rate cut expectations fade, yield curve flattens
By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss
NEW YORK, April 14 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasuries were steady to modestly firmer on Tuesday, lifted by optimism that the Iran war could wind down soon, though trading remained subdued as investors consolidated holdings and awaited clearer developments on the conflict. The United States and Iran could resume talks in Islamabad this week to end the war, sources told Reuters on Tuesday, after the collapse of weekend negotiations prompted U.S. President Donald Trump to order a blockade on Iranian ports. While the U.S. blockade drew angry rhetoric from Iran, signs that diplomatic engagement might continue helped calm oil markets, pushing benchmark prices below $100 on Tuesday.
Brent crude futures were last down 3.6% at $95.75 per barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude last changed hands at $93.16 a barrel, down 6% on the day.
"Everything is still in wait-and-see mode, but we do have a little bit of optimism in the market right now. It's obvious that both the U.S. and Iran want to have some conclusion to this, and they're working towards that," said Jim Barnes, director of fixed income at Bryn Mawr Trust in Berwyn, Pennsylvania.
"Before, it seemed as if they were both trying to get the upper hand to some extent, and that's where the uncertainty kept increasing. Now, that uncertainty has somewhat dissipated and the market is finding comfort that a deal is going to be reached at some point," Barnes said.
In late morning trading, the benchmark 10-year yield was down 1.6 basis points at 4.281%. U.S. 30-year yields slipped 1.4 bps to 4.886% .
On the shorter end of the curve, the two-year yield, which reflects interest-rate expectations, also dipped, down about a basis point at 3.772%. Data showing a lower-than-expected increase in U.S. producer prices for March had little impact on Treasuries, with the market more focused on developments and when hostilities there would end.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose 0.5% last month after a downwardly revised 0.5% gain in February, data showed. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PPI accelerating 1.1% after a previously reported 0.7% gain in February.
In the 12 months through March, the PPI advanced 4.0% after increasing 3.4% in February. A Reuters poll forecast showed a year-on-year increase of 4.7%.
Following the PPI data, U.S. rate futures have priced out expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year, factoring in just seven bps of easing, compared with about 55 bps before the Iran war, according to LSEG estimates.
Another 13 bps of rate declines are implied next year, LSEG data showed.
In other pockets of the bond market, the U.S. yield curve flattened on Tuesday, with the gap between two-year and 10-year yields at 50.1 bps, compared with 51.7 bps late on Monday.
The curve exhibited a bull-flattening move as a result of long-term yields falling faster than those on the short end. It is consistent with expectations that the Fed will likely remain on hold for the rest of the year. The curve also reflects worries about holding longer-dated debt exposed to persistent inflation and huge fiscal deficits. (Reporting by Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss; Editing by Will Dunham)
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