PrintUBS Still Sees Bank of Canada on Hold This Year Despite The "Soggy" Labor Market
BY MT Newswires | ECONOMIC | 11:14 AM EDT11:14 AM EDT, 04/13/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Canada's Labor Force Survey for March suggested a slight improvement in hiring, with employment up 14,000 after two months of declines in January and February, said UBS after Friday's LFS.
The unemployment rate held steady at 6.7%. The bank expects that the unemployment rate could push higher through the summer, but then trend a little lower to 6.6% by year-end
The participation rate also held steady at 64.9% in March, after moderating 44 basis points since January. However, it did move up slightly unrounded from 64.92% in February to 64.95% in March.
UBS continues to expect that the Bank of Canada holds rates steady this year given the uncertain outlook for trade policy and the added uncertainty from the conflict in the Middle East.
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