Investors bet on short-lived boost for dollar from Iran war, BofA survey shows

BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 04/13/26 10:48 AM EDT

LONDON, April 13 (Reuters) - Around a fifth of investors say a bearish dollar position is their highest conviction trade in 2026, anticipating the tailwind from the Iran war will be temporary and the Federal Reserve likely to favour looser monetary policy, a BofA survey on Monday showed.

The April FX and rates sentiment survey polled 30 global fund managers, with a collective $341 billion under management between April 3-9.

The dollar index has rallied just over 1% against other major currencies since the war broke out in late February .

Here are the key highlights of the BofA report:

* 21% of those survey said "short dollar" was their highest conviction trade, the most since last September. "Long rates" took the top spot, with 28% saying this was their preferred trade. A short position suggests investors believe an asset will fall in value, while a long one assumes the opposite.

* "Investors covered dollar shorts but do not want to go long: support from Iran war temporary and Fed seen as likely to err dovish. Respondents do not believe in rate hikes: long conviction increased but expressed at front end of curves," the survey said.

* "Long risk" is still considered the most crowded trade, according to 29% of respondents, slightly ahead of "long rates", with 21% of respondents.

* Positioning in emerging market currencies "now looks very clean", according to the bank, which said these assets could benefit from geopolitical optimism. (Reporting by Amanda Cooper; Editing by Dhara Ranasinghe)

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

Before investing, consider the funds' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.

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