Jobs Data in Focus on Friday for Canadian Dollar, Says ING

06:18 AM EDT, 04/10/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Canada releases the Labour Force Survey (LFS) for March on Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET, said ING.

Consensus is for a 15,000 payroll increase after the very soft 83,000 drop in February, noted the bank.

However, the bigger signal for the Bank of Canada tends to come from the unemployment rate rather than the quite volatile monthly swings in jobs, stated ING. The BoC's pain threshold appears close to 7% unemployment -- levels at which it was previously cutting and maintaining a dovish stance.

The recent decline to 6.7% in the unemployment rate has given the BoC scope to turn slightly more hawkish, even before the Iran war, so accelerations from here could offer a reason to cautiously unwind hike bets, according to the bank.

In ING's view, risks for Canadian dollar (CAD or loonie) front-end rates are skewed to the dovish side in the coming weeks. Markets are pricing around 40bps of tightening by December, which looks too aggressive considering the BoC hasn't signaled much appetite for hikes, and attention may soon shift to USMCA trade deal renegotiations -- a major downside risk for Canada's activity and jobs.

USD/CAD remains dominated by war headlines for now, and continued de-escalation should allow a move to 1.370. The bank retains a "moderate" bearish bias on USD/CAD, but expects CAD to be outpaced by the likes of the Australian dollar (AUD) and Norway's krone (NOK).

MT Newswires does not provide investment advice. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited.