March Jobs Report Allays Labor Market Concerns as Fed Set to Stay Put, Economists Say

07:32 AM EDT, 04/06/2026 (MT Newswires) -- A stronger-than-expected jobs report for March allays labor market concerns that may have arisen following February's weak data, allowing the Federal Reserve to stay put as it assesses the economic impact of the Iran war, economists said.

Total nonfarm payrolls rose by 178,000 last month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Friday, more than double the 65,000 increase expected in a Bloomberg-compiled survey. The latest print is the largest monthly gain since December 2024.

February's decline was revised down by 41,000 to show a fall of 133,000, while January's payroll increase was adjusted upward by 34,000, the BLS said.

"This ... report will come as welcome news for policymakers as it helps to assuage any fear that may have arisen following February's weak employment report," TD Economics Senior Economist Thomas Feltmate said in a note on Friday. "Stability in the labor market should allow policymakers to sit tight and better assess the economic impacts stemming from higher oil prices over the coming months."

Energy prices have been on the rise as the US-Israel war with Iran -- now in its sixth week -- has disrupted shipments through the key Strait of Hormuz.

The unemployment rate edged down to 4.3% from 4.4%, which was Wall Street's view.

The latest jobs report shows that labor market conditions remain satisfactory despite a slowdown in hiring momentum, Stifel said in a note.

"For now, amid ample uncertainty, the Fed appears well positioned on the sidelines, sitting on its hands unless employment conditions notably deteriorate or widespread price pressures push to an uncomfortably elevated level and force the Fed to take action," Stifel Chief Economist Lindsey Piegza wrote.

Markets widely expect the central bank to keep its benchmark lending rate unchanged later this month, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Private payrolls climbed by 186,000 in March following a drop in the previous month, the BLS reported, exceeding the Bloomberg consensus for a 75,000 gain. The service and goods-producing industries turned positive, BLS data showed.

"While we still see a path for a few more rate cuts later this year, the window could be narrowing, especially if March's strength in the labor market were to persist and oil prices were to remain elevated," Feltmate said.

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