March US Nonfarm Payrolls Expected to Rise by 65,000, Unemployment Rate Seen Remaining at 4.4%

02:21 PM EDT, 04/02/2026 (MT Newswires) -- US nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise by 65,000 in March after a 92,000-jobs decline in February, based on a survey compiled by Bloomberg, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.4% after rising to that point in the previous month.

The March employment report is due to be released at 8:30 am ET Friday. A history of overcounting payrolls in February could result in a downward adjustment to the already weak jobs data that month, according to Scotiabank.

Layoffs intentions rebound in March after a decline in February, according to a Challenger, Gray and Christmas report, led by the technology sector as AI usage replaced jobs.

The BLS's private payrolls count, which excludes government payrolls, is expected to increase by 75,000 in March after a jobs decline of 86,000 in February. ADP reported that its measure of private payrolls rose by 62,000 jobs in March after an increase of 66,000 in the previous month.

A strike at Kaiser Permanente that accounted for 31,000 employees and another small strike at Starbuck that accounted for 1,000 workers were settled before the March employment survey week, a positive for nonfarm payrolls this month.

In addition, the lapse in funding at the Department of Homeland Security, particularly for TSA agents, will likely have an impact on federal government payrolls in the March data.

Initial claims and insured claims were both lower in the mid-March employment survey week compared with mid-February survey week.

The National Federation of Independent Businesses reported that 32% of small business owners continued to have problems filling current positions in March, down from 33% in February.

On the consumer side, the percentage of respondents saying that jobs were "plentiful" in the Conference Board's March consumer confidence survey rose by 0.6 percentage points to 27.3% while those saying jobs were "hard to get" increased by 0.5 percentage point to 21.5%, slightly widening the gap between the two measures.

Average hourly earnings are expected to increase by 0.3% in March after a 0.4% gain in February, while the year-over-year growth rate is expected to slow to 3.7% from 3.8%. The average workweek is expected to remain at 34.3 hours.

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