Canada Net Trade Likely To Be a Negative For Q1 GDP, says CIBC

09:00 AM EDT, 04/02/2026 (MT Newswires) -- While the net trade figure released Thursday by Statistics Canada will likely be "a negative" for Q1 GDP due to a surge in imports, Andrew Grantham over at CIBC says that's also "likely a sign of restocking following the inventory drawdown that was a large drag on GDP in the previous quarter."

Grantham notes two-way trade rebounded strongly in February but, with import growth eclipsing that of exports, the trade deficit widened unexpectedly. He notes the $5.7 billion shortfall was wider than a revised $4.2 billion deficit in the prior month and came against forecasts for a narrowing to $2.5 billion. Imports surged by 8.4% and exports increased 6.4%.

Grantham says trade in gold was once again influential in driving the headline figures, although excluding that area imports and exports were still up by a solid 5.8% and 5.5% respectively. He notes export growth was headed by a rebound in auto trade (+24% vs -21% in January) as prolonged retooling shutdowns negatively impacted the prior month, although the other broad categories of exports also posted increases.

In volume terms, Grantham notes exports were up by about 5% on the month, "but still remain depressed relative to levels seen in 2024, showing that U.S. tariffs and related uncertainty are still negatively impacting economic activity if you look through the monthly volatility."

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