Scotiabank Previews This Week's GDP Data in Canada

12:41 PM EDT, 03/30/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Canada updates gross domestic product figures with details for January, along with preliminary guidance for February without details, on Tuesday, said Scotiabank.

Combined, they will improve the bank's tracking of Q1 economic growth. February could be the key and it might modestly improve Q1 growth tracking while nevertheless being stale data in the face of forward-looking developments in commodity markets.

January was initially guided by Statistics Canada to be "essentially unchanged" back on Feb. 27. That preliminary reading may have worsened since then, stated Scotiabank. Hours worked were up by a healthy 0.6% month-over-month seasonally adjusted (SA), which matters because GDP is hours times labor productivity.

For productivity, the bank needs to consider activity readings and they looked pretty weak across manufacturing, housing and wholesalers for instance. Only retailers appeared to benefit from higher volumes as input to the sector's GDP value-added estimates.

February GDP tracking faces the opposite dynamic and could post a healthy 0.25% month-over-month gain. Hours worked fell by 1.1% month-over-month SA because of weather and especially sickness as the flu drove lost hours to a record high.

Yet activity readings like volume measures in housing, manufacturing, wholesalers and retailers picked up. Service sector proxies like air travel are also looking buoyant and so are restaurant bookings.

Adding it all up could give Q1 GDP growth of around 0.75% q/q seasonally adjusted annual rate using monthly GDP. That's not great at all, but the supply side is undergoing negative shocks through falling population and the war-related shocks to global commodity markets that will ripple through supply chains, added Scotiabank.

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