Mike Novogratz Says Bitcoin Trading Well Through War Chaos, Sees Grind To $80,000 With Few Sellers Left

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has outperformed nearly every major asset class during the US-Iran conflict, according to Galaxy Digital Inc (GLXY) CEO Mike Novogratz.

Novogratz said he expects BTC to grind toward $80,000 before meeting real resistance. “It doesn’t trade stunningly well, but it’s outperformed a ton of other assets in this wartime,” he said. “There are not a lot of sellers left.”

What Novogratz Is Seeing

Bitcoin dipped to $67,000 earlier this month as oil spiked above $100 and Treasury yields surged.

Korea, Japan, gold and silver all got hit harder.

The S&P 500 stayed surprisingly intact, which Novogratz attributed partly to US large-cap growth names like Nvidia Corp (NVDA) acting as earnings machines less exposed to energy shocks.

Speaking on the latest All Things Markets podcast with Anthony Scaramucci, Novogratz said buyers keep appearing on BTC dips and that $80,000 will be a fight.

The tone was cautiously bullish, not euphoric.

He also said that the Gulf states are likely to embark on a massive infrastructure buildout to reduce their dependence on the Strait of Hormuz.

What Prediction Markets Are Pricing

With BTC trading near $69,000, Polymarket bettors are pricing Novogratz’s upside and a substantial downside almost symmetrically.

The contract, ‘What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026,’ carrying over $26 million in volume, prices a 74% chance of hitting $80,000 and a 39% chance of reaching $100,000.

On the downside, a drop to $55,000 carries a 70% probability, and $45,000 sits at 46%.

The $80,000 target is only about $11,000 above spot, while the $55,000 downside is roughly $14,000 below it.

Yet bettors price the downside touch almost as likely, reflecting the kind of panic-selling dynamics crypto traders know well: cascading liquidations can cover distance faster on the way down than grinding rallies do on the way up.

Novogratz’s framing matches this shape. Grind up, but don’t rule out another leg down if the war escalates.

Relative Outperformance

Novogratz’s “outperformer” framing comes with a caveat.

BTC is still down roughly 20% year-to-date and trading about 45% below its October all-time high near $126,000. It has mostly bounced in a $67,000-$76,000 range since the war started.

But gold, the supposed safe haven, got hammered 17% in March as rising real yields crushed the easing thesis.

Silver got waxed. BTC held the $67,000 floor and bounced. Not a moonshot, but resilience from an asset that was supposed to collapse alongside risk.

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