PRECIOUS-Gold falls over 2% on fading hopes for interest rate cuts this year

BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 03/26/26 08:35 AM EDT

* Iran reviewing U.S. proposal, has no intention of holding talks

* 38% chance of at least one US rate hike by Dec - CME FedWatch

* Crude oil prices gain over 3% (Updates prices for EMEA session late trade)

By Ishaan Arora

March 26 (Reuters) - Gold prices fell more than 2% on Thursday, as crude prices once again rose above the $100 mark, reigniting concerns of rising inflation, with investors mostly pricing out any chance of U.S. interest rate cuts this year.

Spot gold was down 1.4% at $4,441.21 per ounce by 1213 GMT after falling more than 2% earlier. U.S. gold futures for April delivery lost 2.5% to $4,439.80.

Oil rose about 3% on Thursday, clawing back losses from the previous session on concerns that protracted fighting in the Middle East will further disrupt energy flows.

The conflict in Iran and its potential negative impact on the global economy have enhanced the appeal of the U.S. dollar as a safe haven, said ActivTrades analyst Ricardo Evangelista.

"This dynamic is being reinforced by concerns that the energy crisis will continue to push inflation higher, forcing central banks, including the Federal Reserve, to adopt a more hawkish stance. This, in turn, supports the U.S. dollar and bond yields, weighing on the precious metal."

Benchmark U.S. 10-year Treasury yields were up near eight-month highs.

A stronger dollar makes gold more expensive for international buyers, while higher Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of holding the metal. While gold is seen as an inflation hedge in the long term, higher interest rates dim the non-yielding asset's appeal.

Markets see a near 38% chance of a U.S. rate hike by December this year with 93% pricing in rates being held steady at the Federal Reserve's April policy meet, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Traders only see a 3% chance of a rate cut, that too, in December. Before the conflict, markets were expecting at least two rate cuts in 2026.

U.S. President ?Donald Trump said Iran was desperate to make a deal to end nearly four weeks of fighting, contradicting the Iranian foreign minister who said his country was reviewing a U.S. proposal but had ?no intention of holding talks to wind down the conflict.

Spot silver fell 4.8% to $67.89 per ounce. Spot platinum was down 2.6% at $1,870.71, while palladium shed 3.8% to $1,369.22. (Reporting by Ishaan Arora in Bengaluru; Editing by Sahal Muhammed)

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

Before investing, consider the funds' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.

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