Talk of AI disruption, wars, oil and rates dominates M&A conference even as deals soar

* M&A deals reach over $1 trillion so far this year, 27% increase from last year

* Corporate confidence remains high despite geopolitical tensions and oil price spikes

* AI's impact on business causing some companies to pause M&A activities

By Svea Herbst-Bayliss and Dawn Kopecki

NEW ORLEANS, March 19 (Reuters) - The value of dealmaking is close to all-time highs, even as corporate executives struggle to navigate the Trump administration's tariffs, wars on multiple continents and how artificial intelligence will shape the economy in the years ahead. Market turmoil and political uncertainty dominated the opening sessions at Tulane University's Corporate Law Institute conference in New Orleans this week, where nearly 1,000 of the world's highest-profile investment bankers and M&A lawyers mingled over cocktails, crab cakes and gumbo. "Is instability the new normal?" said Stephan Feldgoise, co-head of global M&A at Goldman Sachs (GS), opening the conference with the keynote address on Thursday. This much market volatility would normally kill M&A, he said, yet deals are soaring. Fewer deals are getting signed but bigger companies are being bought and sold, driving the value of activity to lofty levels. More than $1 trillion in deals has been announced so far this year, 27% more than this time last year, according to data compiled by Dealogic.

"M&A is running at an all-time high," Feldgoise said. "It is phenomenal." Confidence on corporate boards remains high, even as the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran brings wild spikes in oil prices and inflation fears run high.

"It feels like the new normal that there will be uncertainty," Audra Cohen, co-managing partner of law firm Sullivan & Cromwell's general practice group, said on a panel discussion.

Paul, Weiss Chairman Scott Barshay, speaking on the same panel, forecast that 2026 could even break 2021's record of deals.

The hedge fund investors who push for changes at companies will continue to push them to simplify operations, which will drive M&A as they spin out non-core assets, according to bankers and lawyers.

Activist investors ranging from Elliott Investment Management to Jana Partners have quietly pushed some corporations to streamline their businesses.

"We see no slowing of that trend and expect it to continue," Goldman's Feldgoise said. Hostile takeovers like the fight between Netflix (NFLX) and Paramount Skydance (PSKY) to win Warner Bros Discovery (WBD) may pick up as the year continues.

"Volatility makes it tougher to get friendly deals done," Barshay said, noting that buyers and sellers often have differing views on price when the share price gyrates and market uncertainty is higher.

"Stability makes it easier to cut deals, and this year hostiles are likely to go up," he said. The speakers also said deals are closing faster under the Trump administration, assuaging a worry many investors and executives had in past years when there was greater scrutiny under the Biden administration. Some companies, however, are pausing M&A as they figure out how AI impacts their businesses, the panelists said. "AI is as big a change as the internet being introduced," Barshay said, adding that some of his clients are tapping the brakes on mergers as they try to sort out how the new technology will impact buyers' and sellers' views of transactions. (Reporting by Svea Herbst-Bayliss; Editing by Nia Williams)