TSX Closer: The Index Rises For the First Session In Four Amid Broad-based Buying

04:24 PM EDT, 03/16/2026 (MT Newswires) -- The Toronto Stock Exchange closed higher on Monday for the first time in four sessions on bargain hunting and signs that inflation is under control here, at least for now, though some observers noted the February CPI data was "already somewhat outdated" and "stale on arrival" given the likely impact that current geopolitical tensions will have on future readings.

The resources-heavy S&P/TSX Composite Index closed up 334.72 points, or 1%, to 32,876.65, even with lower oil and gold prices, amid broad based buying.

Base Metals was the biggest gainer, up 1.7%, even as gold traded lower on Monday. But the precious metal was off earlier lows that saw its price fall below the US$5,000 mark for the first time in a month despite a lower dollar and continuing turmoil in the Middle East. Gold for April delivery was last seen down US$45.80 to US$5,015.90 per ounce after earlier touching US$4,970.10.

Energy was also higher, up 0.6%, even as West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed down 5.3%, retreating from overnight highs even after U.S. President Trump threatened further attacks on Iran's Kharg Island, the hub for the country's oil exports, while calling for allies to send naval forces to defend shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude oil for April delivery closed down US$5.21 to settle at US$93.50 per barrel, while May Brent oil was down US$2.86 to US$100.28.

The Battery Metals Index lost 4.45%.

Data released early Monday showed Canada inflation was under control ahead of the rise in oil prices that has dictated movements in most markets over much of the last near three weeks, since the U.S. and Israel launched their war with Iran.

But National Bank said this morning's consumer price index (CPI) release is "already somewhat outdated", given how much the outlook has shifted following the conflict in the Middle East. "Still," the bank said, "it provides a snapshot of how price dynamics were evolving heading into the conflict, and the picture is encouraging." It noted inflation was lower than economists had expected at 1.8%, a "significant" drop from the 2.3% recorded in January, due to changes in indirect taxes from a year ago. When indirect taxes are excluded, inflation in Canada also comes in "mild" at 1.9%, falling below the 2.0% threshold in February for the first time in 15 months. It turns out that shelter, the index's heavyweight component, continues to moderate and now stands at just 1.5%, below its pre-pandemic average (2.2%, 1999-2019), National Bank added.

Looking ahead, National Bank expects inflation to move toward the upper end (3%) of the Bank of Canada's target range in the coming months as higher oil prices feed through the economy. "That said," it added, "assuming some degree of de-escalation in the near term, core inflation should remain relatively insulated from these dynamics in the short term. This could give the BoC some latitude to look through the rise in headline inflation, particularly since underlying price pressures appeared well contained prior to the conflict in a context where the economy is in oversupply, weakened by uncertainty over tariffs."

Elsewhere, Derek Holt, Head of Capital Markets Economics at Scotiabank, put it in terms of the rearview mirror showing inflation undershooting expectations. He honed in on the fact that data was for February. "The readings are as stale as week old bread sitting on the discount shelf and headed for the pigeons," Holt said. According to him, "core measures conflicted once again, while the breadth of price pressures eased off somewhat". Holt added a rally in bond yields, as at the time he was writing, should be more focused upon future risks to the inflation outlook.

Still, BMO Capital Markets Chief Economist Douglas Porter in a note said there may have been a tendency to shrug off Canada's CPI for February as "old news", since it obviously pre-dated the spike in gasoline prices, but he added it was a "generally favourable" result. Porternoted CPI excluding food, energy & sales taxes eased to just below 1.8% y/y, the slowest in almost five years and around pre-pandemic norms. Even the BoC's focus core measures both cooled to 2.3% y/y, also matching the mildest since early 2021. Porter said shorter-term trends on the latter are even more muted, with the average 3-month trend now running at just a 1% annual rate-the second slowest of the past decade, outdone only in the depths of COVID.

Porter noted the ongoing drops in home prices and market rents are finally beginning to really weigh on CPI, with shelter costs cooling quickly. He also noted gasoline prices are "clearly going to pump" headline inflation in the next two months, especially with the impact of last year's carbon tax cut falling out in April. But with core near 2%, Porter said the BoC will be much less concerned. "Note that when oil spiked in early 2022 during the Ukraine invasion, core was already at 4% and rising --different world," he added.

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