CIBC Says Bank of Canada Will Like CPI Report for February; Issue Now Will Be Oil Price Shock

09:00 AM EDT, 03/16/2026 (MT Newswires) -- The before picture of Canadian inflation ahead of the oil price shock should give the Bank of Canada "some comfort", as it looked "tame overall", said CIBC after the release of consumer price index data for February on Monday.

CIBC noted headline inflation decelerated to 1.8% year over year from 2.3%. That was helped by base effects tied to last year's tax holiday ending, and reflected a 0.5% month-over-month non-seasonally adjusted advance, 0.1% seasonally adjusted, with that being a little softer than the consensus expectation, noted the bank.

The BoC's key core measures of trim and median matched CIBC's forecast, but were below the consensus expectation, as both decelerated to 2.3% year over year -- down from an average of 2.5% in the prior month.

The "tame" report will be welcomed by policymakers ahead of the energy price shock, as it shows that labor market slack is keeping a lid on core prices, with the issue for the BoC being how long the oil price shock lasts and its magnitude, said CIBC.

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