Pound edges up as investors focus on Middle East and Bank of England?

BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 06:20 AM EDT

* BoE delivers monetary policy decision on Thursday

* US dollar has been investors' haven of choice

* Pound sheltered slightly by lower reliance on energy imports compared with others

LONDON, March 16 (Reuters) - The pound rose for the first time in a week on Monday, but uncertainty over the longer-term impact on global growth and inflation from war in the Middle East kept it near three-month lows as investors favoured the U.S. dollar as a safe haven.

The Bank of England delivers its decision on monetary policy on Thursday and is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 3.75%.

Markets are close to pricing in one rate hike by the end of the year and investors want to know how closely this aligns with the views of Governor Andrew Bailey and other BoE policymakers.

Prior to the outbreak of the war, the markets had priced in two rate cuts.

STERLING FARES BETTER THAN SOME CURRENCIES

Sterling was last up 0.2% on the day at $1.3248, narrowly above Friday's trough at $1.3222, the lowest since early December. The pound was steady against the euro at 86.37 pence.

Since the start of the war on Iran, the dollar has been investors' haven of choice, even more than gold, government bonds and other defensive currencies such as the Swiss franc.

Sterling has fared slightly better than the Japanese yen or the euro, which have lost 2% and 3% in value, respectively, in the last three weeks, compared with the pound's 1.7% loss.

This is in part because of the UK's slightly lower reliance on energy imports than that of the euro zone, or Japan, and also Britain's higher borrowing rates.

UK jobs data later this week could help to shape expectations for the longer-term outlook for BoE policy. Employment is softening and wage growth, which has proven particularly resilient, has also started to show signs of abating.

"A weaker job market, combined with persistent inflation, has contributed to sluggish economic growth. With oil prices rising and markets now expecting fewer interest rate cuts globally, the pound could face additional pressure if labour market conditions continue to deteriorate," Laurence Booth, global head of capital markets at CMC Markets, said in a note.

(Reporting by Amanda Cooper; Editing by Barbara Lewis)

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

Before investing, consider the funds' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.

fir_news_article