FOREX-Dollar eases ahead of busy central bank week amid Mideast war

BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 02:07 AM EDT

* Dollar pulls back slightly, still holds near 10-month high

* Fed, ECB, BoE, BOJ among central banks to meet this week

* Focus on inflation, growth outlook as Middle East war drags on

* RBA expected to hike rates (Updates to Asia afternoon)

By Rae Wee

SINGAPORE, March 16 (Reuters) - The dollar retreated slightly from a 10-month peak on Monday in a tentative start to the week, as investors braced for a slew of central bank meetings under the shadow of the U.S.-Israel war on Iran.

At least eight central banks, including the U.S. Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan meet this week to set rates, in their first policy meetings since the Middle East conflict began.

Focus will be on policymakers' assessment of the impact of higher oil prices on inflation and growth.

"The war ... poses downside risk to economic growth and upside risks to inflation, so central bank responses will very much depend on the recent context, specifically whether inflation has been above, on, or below target," said Carol Kong, a currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

Ahead of the meetings, the dollar retraced some of last week's strong gains, leaving the euro bouncing from a 7-1/2-month low hit earlier in the session to trade 0.2% higher at $1.1440.

Sterling was up 0.23% at $1.3253, though was not far from the 3-1/2-month low it hit on Friday as it clocked a 1.5% weekly decline.

The dollar index eased slightly to 100.29, though that comes after a more than 1.5% gain last week, and it remained perched near a 10-month high.

U.S. President Donald Trump called on allies over the weekend to help secure the Strait of Hormuz and said his administration is talking to seven countries about it.

He warned in a separate interview with the Financial Times that NATO faces a "very bad" future if U.S. allies fail to assist in opening up the Strait.

Potentially offering some relief, the Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump administration plans to announce as early as this week that multiple countries have agreed to form a coalition that will escort ships through the Strait.

Still, markets remained in disarray and oil prices continued to climb, with geopolitical tensions still running high and uncertainty over when the war, now in its third week, could end.

"As things stand now, the likelihood we will really see a change in current trajectory for central banks and their monetary policies around the world is, in our view, very, very limited," said Jorry Noeddekaer, head of global emerging markets and Asia at Polar Capital, whose base case is for the war to be relatively short-lived.

RBA TO HIKE, BOJ IN DIFFICULT SPOT

The Australian dollar was up 0.43% at $0.7010, buoyed by hawkish rate expectations at home as the Reserve Bank of Australia is seen tightening policy on Tuesday.

Markets are now pricing in a roughly 72% chance that the RBA could deliver a 25-basis-point hike.

"We are now pencilling two more hikes, one this week and another in May," said CBA's Kong.

"In Australia, inflation was already too high even before the Middle East conflict started, so with the new energy price shock, that will further increase risks to inflation."

The yen meanwhile languished near the 160-per-dollar level and last stood at 159.37.

The Japanese currency has come under pressure due to the nation's heavy reliance on the Middle East for energy supplies, with the war also throwing into question the BOJ's rate outlook.

"For Japan, the key risk is not simply higher oil prices, but a deterioration in terms of trade driven by the costs of imported energy and logistics, compounded by yen weakness and constrained monetary policy flexibility," said Amova Asset Management's chief global strategist, Naomi Fink.

"Markets - especially foreign exchange - may be underestimating the probability of these pressures forcing a more difficult policy trade-off for the Bank of Japan."

Elsewhere, the New Zealand dollar was up 0.5% at $0.5805, while the onshore yuan was steady as investors assessed fresh economic data and ongoing Sino-U.S. trade talks.

Data on Monday showed China's economy began the year on a firmer footing as factory output quickened while retail sales and investment rebounded in January-February. (Reporting by Rae Wee; Editing by Himani Sarkar and Sam Holmes)

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