CANADA ECONOMICS FEATURE: CIBC's Shenfeld Doesn't Expect BoC To Offer Much Guidance On the Inflation Outlook Next Week

04:29 PM EDT, 03/13/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Both the Federal Reserve Chairman and the Bank of Canada Governor are slated to host press conferences in the coming week, and when they are likely to be questioned on the inflation outlook for their respective nations, they might prefer to offer a terse "no comment", says Avery Shenfeld in his regular 'The Week Ahead' column published Friday.

But Shenfeld notes that's not an option open to either of them given that interest rate decisions will need to explained. Even if, he says, in both cases it will be a decision to hold rates steady.

Still, in the midst of a "thick fog of war", a long winded version of "no comment" is what CIBC expects to hear in terms of where monetary policy is headed. Anything else would reflect a degree of confidence in their forecasts that they just can't have at this point, Shenfeld says.

Shenfeld writes: "That will be an easier task for BoC Governor Macklem, since the week ahead's announcement isn't one accompanied by a Monetary Policy Report, leaving no obligation to spell out a new forecast. That avoids taking a clear stance on the outlook for oil prices and headline inflation, at a time in which claiming to have such clarity would amount to hubris. If the oil shock is short lived, economic slack should prevent a lot of spillover from energy to core prices, and that's as much as the Governor will be prepared to say."

If the headline inflation picture going in to next week "isn't clear, Shenfeld says, the growth picture is "decidedly anemic".

Shenfeld writes: "After a real GDP decline in Q4, albeit with some bright spots in final domestic demand, the first quarter is off to a weak start, underscored by soft readings in most of the growth and employment data we have for the first month or two of the year.

"For reasons we couldn't really fathom, markets entered Friday morning priced for almost two quarter point hikes by the Bank of Canada this year. With so much slack in the economy, this is hardly a time to beat up on demand. Even if the Governor doesn't offer a full throated dovish outlook on inflation, by not giving any hints of a rate hike ahead, he'll throw some cold water on those inclined to position themselves for a policy tightening this year."

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