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Canada's Labour Market to "Tread Water" In 2026 After "Decidedly Weak" Employment Report for February, says TD Bank

BY MT Newswires | ECONOMIC | 09:27 AM EDT

09:27 AM EDT, 03/13/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Friday's Canada jobs data release for February 2026 is a "decidedly weak report", said TD Bank, noting not only did employment decline, but the labour force contracted for a second consecutive month.

"Even looking through some of the noise in the top-line jobs figures, the unemployment rate rose again, reversing most of last month's improvements. Undoubtedly, the report was weaker than expected, but looking through the noise shows an economy that has struggled to gain traction. Something that was to be expected given the structural changes Canada is facing," TD added.

Looking forward, TD is expecting the labour market to tread water in 2026, as a rapid slowdown in population growth drags on labour supply, and soft economic momentum limits hiring. It said the wildcard to all of this is how big the inflation shock from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East will be. The duration of the supply disruption remains highly uncertain, but its length will impact inflation and, thereafter, consumer spending and the economy at large, the bank added.

MT Newswires does not provide investment advice. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited.

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