Factbox-Wall Street brokerages expect Fed rate cuts in mid-2026; Goldman shifts to September

March 12 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs on Thursday became the first major brokerage to push its rate cut call to September from June as higher oil prices due to the escalating conflict in the Middle East renewed concerns over inflation risks.

Ahead of the war, brokerages had expected the U.S. Federal Reserve to deliver its next interest-rate cut in June, while J.P. Morgan projected the next move would be a hike in 2027.

The Federal Open Market Committee is next scheduled to meet on March 18.

Here are the forecasts from major brokerages for 2026:

Brokerage Total cuts in No. of cuts in Fed Funds

2026 2026 Rate

Citigroup 75 bps 3 (in April, 2.75-3.00%

July and

September)

Goldman Sachs 50 bps 2 (in September 3.00-3.25%

and December)

Morgan Stanley 50 bps 2 (in June and 3.00-3.25%

September)

BofA Global 50 bps 2 (in June and 3.00-3.25%

Research July)

Wells Fargo 50 bps 2 (in March and 3.00-3.25%

June)

Nomura 50 bps 2 (in June and 3.00-3.25%

September)

Barclays 50 bps 2 (in June and 3.00-3.25%

December)

UBS Global Research 50 bps 2 (July and 3.00-3.25%

October)

UBS Global Wealth 50 bps 2 (June and 3.00-3.25%

Management September)

Deutsche Bank 25 bps 1 (in September) 3.25-3.50%

BNP Paribas No rate cuts - 3.50-3.75%

HSBC No rate cuts - 3.50-3.75%

J.P.Morgan No rate cuts - 3.50-3.75%

Standard Chartered No rate cuts - 3.50-3.75%

Macquarie Rate hike Q4 -

(Compiled by the Broker Research team in Bengaluru; Editing by Arun Koyyur and Sriraj Kalluvila)