BMO on The Day Ahead in Canada

07:34 AM EDT, 03/12/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Canada is scheduled to release its international merchandise trade data for January at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).

The merchandise trade deficit is expected to narrow to $1 billion in January, noted the bank.

Volatile energy exports look to rise on higher prices for crude oil and natural gas, which will continue to support the balance in the coming months, stated BMO. Similarly, the value of exports of precious metals will benefit from another increase in prices.

However, a negative manufacturing flash points to weakness in imports and non-energy exports, weighed in part by the harsh weather conditions in parts of Canada and the United States, added the bank.

The highly uncertain tariff backdrop will continue to dominate trade flows to start 2026, it pointed out. In January alone, Canada ended remissions on some steel counter-tariffs at the end of the month, while China removed some tariffs on Canadian canola; each of these developments will have offsetting impacts on the balance.

BMO also looks for January wholesale trade to falter after a 2.0% month-over-month gain in the prior month. It's due at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday.

At the same time, January building permits likely sagged 5.0% month over month following a near-7% gain at the end of last year, said the bank.

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