Rising Oil Prices to Boost Consumer Price Index Due to Higher Gasoline Prices, Macquarie Says

06:07 AM EDT, 03/12/2026 (MT Newswires) -- The rise in the oil price is likely to result in stronger core and headline consumer price index in coming months, with the near-term impact concentrated on the pass-through from gasoline prices, Macquarie said in a Wednesday note.

As of Tuesday, the U.S. national average gasoline price had risen 22% from its February average, consistent with its historical relationship with crude oil, Macquarie noted.

Based on the U.S. Energy Information Administration's general guideline, a US$10 increase in the price of crude would translate into a $0.24 increase in the price of gasoline per gallon.

The gasoline price on Tuesday was up $0.65 on its February average, similar to what is implied by the move in crude on the same basis, Macquarie said.

If current pricing persists, it will provide a boost of +0.6 ppts for headline CPI and +0.4 ppts for headline personal consumption expenditures near-term, according to Macquarie. There may be a further increase longer-term.

If oil prices remain in their recent range, there will also be further knock-on impacts on food inflation and core inflation, Macquarie said.

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