GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks dip, Treasury yields jump as oil pushes higher

BY Reuters | TREASURY | 01:44 PM EDT

* US inflation rises as expected in February, impacting market sentiment

* Oil prices up as Middle East conflict raises concerns over global energy trade and inflation

* Bond yield rise fuels overheating fears in private credit and AI investments (Updates to afternoon U.S. trading)

By Lawrence Delevingne and Amanda Cooper

BOSTON/LONDON, March 11 (Reuters) - Wall Street shares fell but the dollar held firm on Wednesday, after data showed U.S. inflation picked up as expected in February, although most investor focus was squarely on the oil price and on the chances that the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran could have a longer-term impact on economic growth. Data from the Labor Department showed the consumer price index rose 0.3% in February, in line with forecasts and above January's 0.2% increase. CPI rose 2.4% in the year to February, also matching expectations, while the core rate, which excludes food and energy prices, rose 2.5%, in line with forecasts. On Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell about 0.6%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite was little changed.

The consumer price report does not capture the steep rise in items such as gasoline since the outbreak of war in the Middle East 12 days ago. Markets already show traders believe there is a rising chance that most central banks' next move with interest rates will be to hike.

"February's inflation numbers were heading in the right direction, but then along came the conflict in the Middle East and now the path is changing. Instead of deflation from energy, we will get inflation. Food prices could show signs of inflation acceleration as the fertilizer market is in chaos," Annex Wealth Management chief economist Brian Jacobsen said.

Oil had another volatile day, although price movement was muted compared to the record price swings of Monday's session. The International Energy Agency will recommend the release of 400 million barrels of oil, the largest amount in IEA history, three sources said on Wednesday, to rein in soaring prices. Japan and Germany said they would start releasing some reserves.

Brent crude futures were last up around 4% at $91 a barrel, having risen earlier by as much as 6% to almost $93. The MSCI All-World index fell 0.2% and European shares slid, leaving the STOXX 600 down 0.6%. MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan closed higher by 1%. Investors remain on edge as the Middle East conflict threatens to freeze global energy trade and ignite a price shock - a risk that world leaders are scrambling to address. The immediate concern is when the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for 20% of global fuel supply, will again be safe for traffic as threats to vessels have deterred ships from entering it since the outbreak of the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. Three more vessels were struck by projectiles, while Iran's military command said on Wednesday that the world should be prepared for oil to hit $200 a barrel. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said on Tuesday the ECB would do everything to keep inflation under control to avoid a repeat of the 2022 energy price shock. Several ECB officials favor a wait-and-see approach before taking action. The euro fell around 0.3% to $1.157, while the pound was little changed on the day at $1.341. The yen weakened further, leaving the dollar up 0.5% at 158.9.

BOND YIELD SURGE ADDS TO OVERHEATING CONCERNS

The surge in bond yields this week, due to fears of sustained energy-price pressures, has added to concerns over other market segments being at risk of overheating, such as private credit and the vast investments in AI projects. Investors were also reminded of vulnerabilities within private credit after a person close to JPMorgan Chase said on Wednesday the bank had marked down the value of some loans held by private-credit groups and was tightening lending to the sector. Publicly-traded asset managers such as Blue Owl Capital and Ares Management lost ground on Wednesday as jitters were felt across the financials sector. U.S. Treasuries fell again on Wednesday, pushing the yield on the benchmark 10-year note up 8.2 basis points to 4.218%. (Reporting by Lawrence Delevingne in Boston and Amanda Cooper in London. Additional reporting by Rae Wee in Singapore; Editing by Pooja Desai, Bernadette Baum, William Maclean, Nick Zieminski and Aurora Ellis)

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

Before investing, consider the funds' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.

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