Arthur Hayes: Iran War Means Fed Prints?'That's When I Buy Bitcoin'

BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes says he would not buy Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) now and is waiting for the Federal Reserve to “print money to support the American war machine,” arguing the longer the Iran conflict continues, the higher the likelihood of money printing.

The ‘Wait For The Fed’ Strategy

Hayes explained his timing on the Coin Stories podcast. “If I had $1 to invest right now, would I be putting it into Bitcoin? No. I would wait,” Hayes said. 

“I think that the longer that this conflict goes on, the higher the likelihood that the Fed has to print money to support the American war machine. And that’s when I’m going to buy Bitcoin when the central banks start printing money,” he added.

Hayes distinguished between war itself and the monetary response. War isn’t inherently bullish for Bitcoin. Rather, wars force governments to print money to fund military operations, and that money printing drives Bitcoin higher. 

Trying to buy Bitcoin in anticipation of Fed action risks mistiming the entry. The better strategy waits for actual policy announcements.

Moreover, The Fed has printed during every major Middle Eastern conflict in Hayes’s lifetime. 

With Trump indicating he might put boots on the ground and committing for “however long it takes,” the conflict could extend and force monetary expansion to fund operations.

The AI Deflation Risk

Hayes views Bitcoin as a “liquidity alarm” signaling massive deflationary pressure from AI disruption. When the highest wage earners lose jobs to AI cost-cutting, it will trigger credit destruction in a highly leveraged banking system.

The market will recognize AI disruption suddenly rather than gradually. Hayes argues only 10-20% job losses are needed before the banking system’s leverage creates a crisis. 

This resembles a Minsky moment where markets suddenly reprice assets to reflect new reality rather than adjusting slowly.

When unemployment rises a few percentage points and AI displacement stories crystallize in investors’ minds, they will dump banking stocks and private credit simultaneously. 

Regional banks could fall 60-70% in days as depositors flee to government-guaranteed institutions like JPMorgan (JPM) , forcing Fed intervention through emergency liquidity.

The Equity Sell-Off Warning

Hayes doesn’t think the bottom is in. “We’re due for a sell-off in equities that we haven’t seen and generally Bitcoin doesn’t uncouple from them. It performs like a high beta tech stock and so it will sell off as well,” Hayes said.

Bitcoin might break below $60,000 with cascading liquidations if the Iran conflict extends.

However, Hayes sees this as opportunity before the Fed prints. “I don’t think there are going to be many more years where you can buy sub $100,000 Bitcoin.”

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