National Bank Sees Bank of Canada on Hold With Rates at "Next Few" Policy Meetings

08:37 AM EDT, 03/10/2026 (MT Newswires) -- National Bank said Tuesday with geopolitical uncertainty high and domestic data volatile, citing recent labour market data as an example, it expects the Bank of Canada to "simply sit on its hands for the next few meetings" and not work on any changes to its monetary policy.

"If you can't get a clean read on labour market and you're not sure how much slack is in the economy, what do you do if you're the Bank of Canada? In the short run, nothing. With uncertainty high and data volatile, we expect the Bank to simply sit on its hands for the next few meetings," National Bank said in its 'Monthly Fixed Income Monitor' for March 2026.

Beyond the next few months, it will be inflation that's the guiding light on policy for the BoC, as Governor Tiff Macklem explained in an earlier speech, noted the bank.

Ultimately, National Bank said it sees headline inflation remaining in the control band -- but rising close to 3% -- and core pressures hovering slightly above 2%. That's enough inflation to keep the BoC from cutting rates, but is unlikely to prompt 2026 rate hikes, added the bank.

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