ING Says Fall in January's German Exports Caps a Weak Start to The Year for The Economy

08:12 AM EDT, 03/10/2026 (MT Newswires) -- German exports fell by 2.3% month over month in January from a 4.0% month-over-month gain in December, said ING.

At the same time, imports dropped by 5.9% month over month, widening the German trade surplus to 21.2 billion euros, the highest level since the summer of 2024.

Still, despite Tuesday's disappointment, exports are still higher than in November 2025. In fact, German exports are basically moving sideways, pointed out ING.

Looking ahead, German exports still face "rough" headwinds, stated the bank. United States tariffs are still weighing on exports and will probably only show their full impact this year, notwithstanding the new uncertainty since the Supreme Court's ruling.

At the same time, German exporters are currently facing a triple China shock: weaker demand for German products in China, increased competition from Chinese producers in third markets and Germany's home market, the European Union, and finally the dependence on Chinese rare earths.

The current war in the Middle East, surging energy prices and potentially new supply chain frictions are only the latest in a long series of headwinds, added ING.

Tuesday's trade data adds to a very weak start to the new year for the entire German economy. Retail sales, industrial production, construction and trade were all down in January. After the surprise rebound of the economy in Q4 2025, these data show that the road toward a sustainable recovery is still long, according to the bank.

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