Scotiabank Previews Next Week's Bank of Canada Policy Meeting

07:12 AM EDT, 03/10/2026 (MT Newswires) -- No policy rate move is expected at the Bank of Canada's March 18 policy meeting.

The policy statement and Governor Tiff Macklem's opening remarks to the press conference is scheduled for 9:45 a.m. ET and will be followed by the press conference 45 minutes later, noted the bank.

The next forecast update will be with the April policy decision, pointed out Scotiabank.

Policy rate guidance is likely to retain reference to it remaining "appropriate" at current levels while continuing to emphasize uncertainty, stated the bank. The layers of uncertainty that the BoC obsesses over are getting "thicker by the day."

A lot has happened since the Jan. 28 decision, including forecasts, added Scotiabank. The BoC may emphasize strength in final domestic demand during Q4 instead of the weak gross domestic product headline number while noting that tentative evidence of a GDP rebound in Q1 is in place.

The oil shock stemming from the United States and Israeli war with Iran may dominate the attention, but the BoC is likely to say it's too soon to evaluate its effects, as the magnitude and duration are uncertain, according to the bank.

Historically, the BoC has reacted in a relatively hawkish way to a sustained rise in oil prices. A net energy exporter receives imported income from the terms of trade lift that then trickles down through incomes in the household sector, improved fiscal balances, improved growth in aggregated corporate retained earnings and a more positive trade surplus. The effects can tend to add upside risk to inflation.

Canadian jobs will be updated this Friday before the BoC and another drop could merit caution, notwithstanding the importance of the details, concluded Scotiabank.

MT Newswires does not provide investment advice. Unauthorized reproduction is strictly prohibited.