CIBC Previews This Week's Jobs Report in Canada

08:21 AM EDT, 03/09/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Canada will release the Labour Force Survey (LFS) for February on Friday, said CIBC.

Employment may recover the ground lost in January, with that prior month's report treated with some skepticism due to the potential impact of large snowfall in Ontario during the survey week, noted the bank.

CIBC estimates jobs to rise by 25,000 in February

However, the bank also expects to see at least a partial rebound in labor force participation, with the prior month's slump going well beyond what can be explained by demographics alone.

That increase in participation will mean that, despite close to zero population growth, the gain in employment may not keep pace with the increase in labor supply during the month, seeing the jobless rate tick up to 6.6% from 6.5% in January, stated CIBC.

Employment growth is expected to remain uneven in the near-term, with companies still reluctant to increase staffing levels due to the United States tariffs and other uncertainties, added the bank. Any further reduction in the unemployment rate this year will be only gradual, before hopefully accelerating later in the year and into 2027 if some of these uncertainties fade.

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