ING Says Kazakhstan's Central Bank Keeps Rates on Hold as Disinflation Is Offset by Rising External Risks; Sees Cuts Later in 2026

BY MT Newswires | ECONOMIC | 03/06/26 07:22 AM EST

07:22 AM EST, 03/06/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Kazakhstan's central bank (NBRK) held the base rate steady at 18.00% on Friday, signaling patience despite slowing inflation, said ING.

Domestic utility tariffs, fiscal and external risks call for an extended period of tight policy, wrote the bank in a note. High real rates may insulate portfolio flows as global risk aversion rises.

ING expects year-end inflation to ease to around 10% year over year. Provided the external environment stabilizes and tariff/fiscal risks remain manageable, the NBRK has room for roughly 200bps of cuts in H2 2026, likely bringing the policy rate to around 16.00% by the year-end, stated the bank.

On currency, the bank continues to see limited long-term sensitivity of USD/KZT to oil prices. A 17% rise in Brent and higher OPEC quotas have delivered only a 0.8% appreciation in USD/KZT so far, ING added.

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