Scotiabank Previews Bank of Canada Governor's Speech on Wednesday

09:05 AM EST, 03/04/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem speaks on 'financial stability risks and vulnerabilities' at 10:20 a.m. ET on Wednesday and there will be an audience question-and-answer session, with a fireside chat but no press, said Scotiabank.

The bank will watch for any comments from Macklem on oil price effects on Canada, given the over US$20/barrel rise in WTI and US$16/barrel rise in the lagging WCS heavy crude benchmark since January.

It's too early to hear anything on the BoC's policy stance toward an oil shock, and he won't signal anything material just yet and if anything is likely to say they expect the rise to be temporary, stated Scotiabank.

Still, if pressed on the issue, the governor may say that the longer an oil price shock goes on -- which in turn partly depends upon how much damage is done to the energy infrastructure -- the more likely the BoC could ultimately pivot, added the bank.

Macklem could go textbook and remind folks how the BoC views material and sustained oil price increases/decreases as a terms of trade shock that, for a net energy exporter, serves as a positive/negative income shock with trickle down effects throughout the economy that add to inflation risk.

Scotiabank doubts he'll even say that at this point, though, given it's early and extremely tentative.

Further, the bank fully expects him to "rightly" say that the broad effects on financial market conditions have been "pretty modest." Macklem will also be guarded ahead of next Friday's Canadian jobs for which Scotiabank has gone with a drop.

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