FOREX-Dollar firms, euro stumbles as energy prices surge

BY Reuters | ECONOMIC | 12:57 AM EST

* Dollar index holds gains, rising for third consecutive day

* Spike in energy prices prompts speculation ECB may take action, threatening carry trades

* Aussie dollar weakens despite GDP beat (Refreshes markets through Asia afternoon)

By Gregor Stuart Hunter

SINGAPORE, March 4 (Reuters) - The dollar held firm near a three-month high in Asia on Wednesday, with investors retreating from the euro as the conflict in the Middle East sparked fears of a sustained rise in energy prices and took a heavy toll on stock markets.

The euro slipped 0.2% to $1.1590, extending losses into a third day after earlier hitting its weakest since late November. That followed data released on Tuesday which showed euro zone inflation at a higher than expected level in February before the start of the Iran conflict.

"The impact of the Iran war on EUR/USD boils down to one thing: energy," said George Saravelos, global head of FX research at Deutsche Bank. "There is a negative supply shock under way which represents a direct tax on Europeans that has to be paid to foreign producers in dollars."

Financial markets resumed their selloff on Wednesday as growing fears of a surge in inflation rippled across stocks and bonds after Israeli and U.S. forces pounded targets across Iran, prompting a rush for cash among investors.

Global oil and gas prices have jumped as the strikes on Iran disrupts energy exports from the Middle East, with Tehran's retaliatory attacks on ships and energy facilities closing navigation in the Gulf and forcing production stoppages from Qatar to Iraq.

The benchmark Brent crude oil contract gained 1.9% on Wednesday to $82.94 per barrel, hitting the highest since July 2024 and taking gains since Friday to 14%. European gas prices are up 70% since the end of last week.

"Suddenly, the 'good place' of the ECB is being challenged, and we doubt we will see that resolved in the very near term," analysts from ING wrote in a research report. "The possibility of ECB rate hikes poses a serious risk to carry trades and could trigger a significant widening of eurozone government bond (EGB) spreads."

The British pound slipped 0.3% to $1.3323. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback's strength against a basket of six currencies, was up 0.1% at 99.208, after earlier reaching its strongest level since November 28.

Against the yen, the dollar was down 0.2% at 157.52 yen.

The U.S. currency was also up 0.1% versus the Chinese yuan in offshore trade, changing hands at 6.9287 yuan after PMI data for February diverged, with official gauges recording a slump in activity even as a private-sector counterpart blew past estimates.

The Australian dollar was down 0.6% at $0.6996, even as data showed GDP growth for the fourth quarter picked up speed.

"The headline figures may be overstating the weakness in private demand," analysts from Capital Economics wrote. "Although the underlying details were a mixed bag, we suspect the RBA will still be concerned that growth is running above potential in Australia."

The New Zealand dollar was up 0.1% at $0.5898. Bitcoin was off 0.4% at $67,776.69, while ether fell 0.5% to $1,958.81. (Reporting by Gregor Stuart Hunter; Editing by Jacqueline Wong, Muralikumar Anantharaman and Shri Navaratnam)

In general the bond market is volatile, and fixed income securities carry interest rate risk. (As interest rates rise, bond prices usually fall, and vice versa. This effect is usually more pronounced for longer-term securities.) Fixed income securities also carry inflation risk and credit and default risks for both issuers and counterparties. Unlike individual bonds, most bond funds do not have a maturity date, so avoiding losses caused by price volatility by holding them until maturity is not possible.

Lower-quality debt securities generally offer higher yields, but also involve greater risk of default or price changes due to potential changes in the credit quality of the issuer. Any fixed income security sold or redeemed prior to maturity may be subject to loss.

Before investing, consider the funds' investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Contact Fidelity for a prospectus or, if available, a summary prospectus containing this information. Read it carefully.

fir_news_article