BMO on The Day Ahead in Canada

07:45 AM EST, 02/26/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Canada will release the current account deficit for Q4 at 8:30 a.m. ET, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).

The bank looks for the Q4 current account deficit to narrow to $3.8 billion, or $15.0 billion a.r., in Q4. A narrower goods trade deficit is driving the improvement, as higher gold prices propelled exports.

Meantime, the smaller services account is expected to deteriorate on a recovery in imports of travel services. BMO estimates the current account shortfall to weigh in at just under 0.5% of gross domestic product, with the latter figures to be released on Friday.

While that would mark another improvement from the depths of Q2, current account deficits are likely to persist as trade uncertainty remains elevated, added the bank.

Investors will also get the job vacancy rate at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday for December, which slipped to 2.6% month over month as of November.

The province of Alberta will table its FY26/27 budget later Thursday, with another year of deficit expected. At last check, Alberta was looking at a $6.4 billion shortfall for FY25/26, or 1.3% of GDP, alongside $61.50/barrel WTI oil prices. At this time last year, Alberta had forecast a $2.4 billion shortfall for the upcoming year (FY26/27), but that was driven by a $71 WTI oil price assumption at the time.

Even with a wider deficit, Alberta should be at the lower end of the provincial spectrum and maintain the lowest net debt-to-GDP ratio in Canada by a wide margin, added BMO.

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