Berenberg Asks If Europe Is Now A Safer Place Since The Start of Russia's War on Ukraine

10:25 AM EST, 02/24/2026 (MT Newswires) -- With Finland and Sweden in NATO and a major rise in defense spending, Europe should be a much safer place than it used to be four years ago when Russia attacked Ukraine, said Berenberg.

After all, the combined gross domestic product of the European Union, the United Kingdom and Norway is roughly ten times the size of the Russian economy, noted the bank. Russia has also suffered huge losses in Ukraine, which should hinder its ability to attack a NATO country.

According to Berenberg, "unfortunately," this is only part of the story:

-- Having switched to a war economy, Russia is producing even more weapons than it is using in Ukraine.

-- In a brutal process of natural selection, the quality of the Russian battlefield commanders seems to have improved significantly over time. Put bluntly: the incompetent ones have fallen, most of those who survived to lead the troops now seem to be fairly capable.

-- In a rapidly evolving arms race, Russia and Ukraine have gained battlefield experience that other countries lack. In other words, Europe would now probably need Ukrainian expertise to defend itself against Russia.

-- The war has exposed the degree to which Europe and Ukraine depend on the United States, notably for intelligence, satellite communications, air defense and logistics.

-- U.S. President Donald Trump has undermined NATO's primary function of deterring aggression against any member country by casting doubt on the Alliance's key mutual defence clause. The U.S. would "probably" use its full conventional military might to repel a Russian attack on the Baltics, stated Berenberg.

To really be a safer place, Europe must keep the U.S. involved, strengthen its own capabilities and make sure that Ukraine remains a free pro-European democracy that can help in any future defense of European NATO members, added the bank.

As a second key task, Europe needs to raise the pressure on Russia now and maintain it even in the still unlikely case of an armistice, according to Berenberg. Putin cannot keep the economy on its expensive war footing for many more years. If he tries to do so, the Russian economy will eventually crumble as the Soviet Union's did due to the expensive arms race with the West after the invasion of Afghanistan in 1979.

In the long run, tight sanctions against Russia will undermine the economic base of Putin's military machine and contain the threat that he poses to Europe, concluded the bank.

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