BMO Notes A "Sea of Shortfalls" in Nova Scotia's Provincial Budget Forecast

08:11 AM EST, 02/24/2026 (MT Newswires) -- The Canadian province of Nova Scotia is projecting a $1.2 billion deficit, representing 2.2% of gross domestic product, in FY26-27, which will be little changed from the prior year, notes Bank of Montreal.

The province, BMO also notes, doesn't anticipate returning to balance across the four-year forecast horizon, with the shortfall narrowing to a still-sizeable $800 million by FY29-30.

Also of note, the forecast includes a modest $50 million contingency, a quarter of the size of what first appeared in last year's budget. Scotia says the contingency is meant to absorb shocks arising from tariffs or other factors, so it could be spent even if there were some certainty on the trade front.

BMO notes the budget is focused on building resilience amid trade uncertainty, building on last year's marquee measures to cut the Harmonized Sales Tax and the small business tax, stated BMO.

Measures in this budget include:

-- Increasing the Financial Institutions Capital Tax from 4% to 6% for tax years starting on or after Nov. 1, 2026.

-- Introducing a new levy on electric vehicles ($500) and hybrids ($250) starting Oct. 1, 2026, when the vehicle is registered or registration is renewed.

-- Launching the previously-announced First-Time Homebuyers Program to facilitate down payments of 2% for homebuyers making less than $200,000.

-- Additional funding for wildfire services and improving health care access.

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