Scotiabank Previews This Week's GDP Data in Canada

08:17 AM EST, 02/23/2026 (MT Newswires) -- Canada will release on Friday fresh gross domestic product figures for Q4, the month of December and the flash reading for January 2026, said Scotiabank.

The bank noted it expects the readings to be "soft."

For Q4, Scotiabank predicts about 0.5% quarter over quarter contraction at a seasonally adjusted and annualized rate (SAAR). December GDP was guided by Statistics Canada to be up 0.1% month-over-month seasonally adjusted back on Jan. 30. The bank's estimate with fresher data since then leans toward the same. January GDP is looking roughly flat.

The Bank of Canada had estimated Q4 growth at 0% before rebounding to a forecast of 1.8% growth rate in Q1 2026. Maybe it will be so, but the details under the hood will also matter, pointed out the bank.

It's possible that investors will see Q3 GDP revisions, stated Scotiabank. The bank recalls that StatsCan initially guesstimated trade figures for that quarter because their United States peers were in a protracted government shutdown.

Since then, Scotiabank has learned that export volumes were higher using monthly figures, including revisions, compared with the initial export figures in the GDP accounts for Q3. Net trade contributions could be revised up in Q3 GDP, but Scotiabank dones't know if that came at the expense of inventories or through higher production.

Canada's stock market has performed better than the U.S. in local currency terms since the U.S. presidential election, in no small part due to commodities and banks, added Scotiabank. Canada has posted more job growth than the U.S. since the U.S. started trade wars with everyone, especially after adjusting nonfarm for serial overcounting.

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