National Bank On What It Will Be Watching For In Economics Next Week

03:25 PM EST, 02/20/2026 (MT Newswires) -- In Canada, the release of Q4 GDP data is likely to attract a lot of attention next Friday.

Although it probably remained positive, growth in final domestic demand may have slowed during the quarter, with a rebound in investment in machinery and equipment having likely been offset in part by lower spending in the residential and non-residential structures segments, according to National Bank. The bank said personal consumption expenditure may have stagnated, judging by the already published retail sales data, and added unlike in the last two quarters, international trade is expected to have had only a minor impact on headline growth, albeit a positive one. Finally, it noted, government spending is expected to have contributed positively to growth for the third consecutive quarter. Overall, National said, GDP may have grown by only 0.2% in annualized terms.

National noted industry data published at the same time could show a 0.2% expansion of economic output in December, with positive contributions from manufacturing and wholesale trade having likely been only partially offset by declines in retail trade and mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction.

On other data, National said balance of payments data published on Thursday for the fourth quarter could show the current account deficit shrinking from C$9.68 billion to C$5.25 billion, a narrowing of the goods shortfall having likely been only partially offset by a smaller services surplus. Also, National will keep an eye out for the publication of the December Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours (SEPH).

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