CIBC On The Week Ahead In Canada Economics

01:50 PM EST, 02/20/2026 (MT Newswires) -- According to CIBC's Avery Shenfeld, it won't be a surprise to either markets or the Bank of Canada if Q4 GDP next Friday shows a slight negative, but he said it underscores that we need to see a return to growth in Q1 for the central bank to stick with its "on hold" stance. Shenfeld noted the flash GDP estimate for January will give the first clues on what lies ahead. He said while the news there will be mixed (including soft housing activity), a sharp rebound in January retail sales suggests that consumers, a source of Q4 weakness, could be key to a rebound in the economy to start the year. On MoM GDP, CIBC sees a rise of 0.1%, in line with consensus. On Q4 GDP, CIBC sees a drop of 0.2%, compared to a consensus drop of 0.4%.

Also on the calendar for next week is an auction of $13.4 billion in 3-M Bills, $4.8 billion in 6-M Bills and $4.8 billion in 1-YR Bills on Tuesday; followed by an auction of $5.25 billion in 10-YR CANADAS on Wednesday; and an auction of $6 billion in 2-YR CANADAS on Thursday.

Thursday will also see the release of December Payrolls data and Q4 Current Account data, as well as the Alberta budget.

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